Scopes

NFL odds vs. the sharp book

Kalshi's game prices next to the de-vigged sharp-book fair value: the sharpest line in the world, with the bookmaker's margin removed. Sorted by the widest divergences.

As of Oct 1, 2:01 PM EDTDelayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard

Titans v Ravens

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

1.7-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Titans14.5%16.2%
Ravens85.5%83.8%

Vikings v Dolphins

Oct 4, 4:05 PM EDT · NFL

1.5-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Vikings83.5%82.0%
Dolphins16.5%18.0%

Seahawks v Chargers

Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDT · NFL

1.3-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Seahawks75.5%74.3%
Chargers25.5%25.8%

Saints v Falcons

Oct 5, 8:15 PM EDT · NFL

1.2-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Saints55.5%56.7%
Falcons44.5%43.3%

Giants v Cardinals

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

1.0-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Giants44.5%43.5%
Cardinals55.5%56.5%

Lions v Panthers

Oct 4, 8:20 PM EDT · NFL

0.9-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Lions64.5%63.5%
Panthers35.5%36.4%

Steelers v Browns

Oct 1, 8:15 PM EDT · NFL

0.9-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Steelers57.5%58.4%
Browns42.5%41.6%

Eagles v Rams

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.8-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Eagles39.5%38.7%
Rams60.5%61.3%

Commanders v Colts

Oct 4, 9:30 AM EDT · NFL

0.8-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Commanders36.5%35.7%
Colts63.5%64.3%

Jets v Bears

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.7-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Jets38.5%37.8%
Bears62.5%62.2%

Patriots v Bills

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.7-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Patriots26.5%27.2%
Bills73.5%72.8%

Buccaneers v Packers

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.5-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Buccaneers37.5%37.0%
Packers62.5%63.0%

Jaguars v Bengals

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.4-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Jaguars42.5%42.1%
Bengals57.5%57.9%

Raiders v Chiefs

Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDT · NFL

0.4-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Raiders34.5%34.9%
Chiefs65.0%65.1%

49ers v Broncos

Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDT · NFL

0.1-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
49ers56.5%56.6%
Broncos43.5%43.4%

Texans v Cowboys

Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · NFL

0.1-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Texans59.5%59.6%
Cowboys40.5%40.4%

How the fair value is set

We take a sharp sportsbook's two-sided moneyline, convert each price to a probability, and remove the bookmaker's vig by normalizing the two sides to sum to 1. The result is the market's best public estimate, and where Kalshi diverges from it is the Scopes Divergence.

Scopes Fair Value
:
an independent probability estimate computed from a sharp sportsbook’s de-vigged two-sided moneyline.
Scopes Divergence
:
the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.

Background reading: how de-vigging a sportsbook line works: why the two sides of a line sum to more than 100%, and how removing the margin turns the odds into a probability. Market structure, not a strategy.

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