MLB odds vs. the sharp book
Kalshi's game prices next to the de-vigged sharp-book fair value: the sharpest line in the world, with the bookmaker's margin removed. Sorted by the widest divergences.
As of Oct 1, 2:01 PM EDTDelayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
Padres v Brewers
Oct 3, 8:30 PM EDT · MLB
Rays v Yankees
Oct 3, 6:31 PM EDT · MLB
White Sox v Guardians
Oct 3, 1:01 PM EDT · MLB
Phillies v Braves
Oct 1, 8:11 PM EDT · MLB
Padres v Cubs
Sep 30, 10:00 PM EDT · MLB
in play · pregame line
Yankees v Red Sox
Sep 30, 8:15 PM EDT · MLB
in play · pregame line
How the fair value is set
We take a sharp sportsbook's two-sided moneyline, convert each price to a probability, and remove the bookmaker's vig by normalizing the two sides to sum to 1. The result is the market's best public estimate, and where Kalshi diverges from it is the Scopes Divergence.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from a sharp sportsbook’s de-vigged two-sided moneyline.
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
Background reading: how de-vigging a sportsbook line works: why the two sides of a line sum to more than 100%, and how removing the margin turns the odds into a probability. Market structure, not a strategy.
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