Research · Mechanics

Mechanics

The Scopes Desk

Educational primers on how these markets are built: the instruments and their settlement terms, how the Scopes Fair Value replicates a payoff, the frictions that let a divergence persist, and the economics underneath. Each primer explains market structure, not a strategy. Each primer links to the live desk so you can watch the mechanic play out.

Two mornings on the desks

The same instrument on two desks: one as a reader meets it, one as a reporter does.

A deadline on the Polls desk.

A reporter is filing on the Michigan Senate race. The prediction markets have the Democrat at 54%. The Scopes Poll Composite, the median of named public forecast models, each one listed and linked, sits at 61%. A seven-point divergence, flagged and timestamped.

That's no longer a vibe or a hot take; it's a fact with a source: the betting crowd and the modelers disagree about Michigan, and here is by how much, as of this morning.

One click away, the scorecard shows how disagreements like this one have resolved before, how often the markets proved right, how often the models did, across every tracked race, wins for either side displayed alike.

What the reporter writes (lead with it, question it, ignore it) is entirely their call. Scopes measures; it never spins. But "the markets and the models split on Michigan, per Scopes" is a sentence with a citation, a timestamp, and a public record behind it, which beats a sentence with none.

How each desk's fair value is built

How to read the record

What the scorecard's split means — and what it doesn't
Why a side that is right more often at disagreements is not a payout available to its followers — the split is a calibration record, not a way to profit.
See the scorecard →

For institutions

How institutions evaluate Scopes
Four illustrative buyer conversations — a fund, a newsroom, a platform, an insurer — on reconstructibility, lookahead bias, independence, and data rights. The people are fictional; the product, record, terms, and architecture are real.
Request the Reference →
▸ Listen · ~14 min

See it on the record

The public scorecard →Get the Week in Review (free) →

For funds, administrators & researchers: Request the Reference →

Research and information only, not investment or betting advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Mechanics articles explain market structure; they are not strategies, recommendations, or advice.

Mechanics

Two mornings on the desks

How each desk's fair value is built

Why equity-index divergences persist

How de-vigging a sportsbook line works

What a poll actually measures

How to read the record

What the scorecard's split means — and what it doesn't

For institutions

How institutions evaluate Scopes