Scopes

CFB odds vs. the sharp book

Kalshi's game prices next to the de-vigged sharp-book fair value: the sharpest line in the world, with the bookmaker's margin removed. Sorted by the widest divergences.

As of Oct 1, 2:01 PM EDTDelayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard

Your read

A read is your judgment, locked before resolution, of which published estimate was better calibrated: the market price or the Scopes Fair Value. Scopes records it and scores it when the event settles. It is not a forecast of the outcome and not a recommendation to trade.

Utah St. v Boise St.

Oct 3, 7:30 PM EDT · CFB

3.4-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Utah St.7.5%10.9%
Boise St.91.5%89.1%

Kentucky v South Carolina

Oct 3, 4:15 PM EDT · CFB

2.9-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Kentucky42.5%39.6%
South Carolina57.5%60.4%

North Carolina v Notre Dame

Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · CFB

2.8-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
North Carolina6.5%9.3%
Notre Dame93.5%90.7%

Vanderbilt v Georgia

Oct 3, 12:45 PM EDT · CFB

2.3-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Vanderbilt4.5%6.8%
Georgia95.5%93.3%

Rutgers v Indiana

Oct 3, 8:00 PM EDT · CFB

2.0-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Rutgers5.5%7.5%
Indiana94.5%92.5%

Ohio St. v Iowa

Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · CFB

1.9-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Ohio St.84.5%82.6%
Iowa15.5%17.4%

SMU v Boston College

Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · CFB

1.3-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
SMU91.5%90.2%
Boston College8.5%9.8%

TCU v BYU

Oct 3, 7:00 PM EDT · CFB

1.3-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
TCU32.0%33.3%
BYU67.5%66.7%

Texas Tech v Colorado

Oct 3, 7:31 PM EDT · CFB

0.9-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Texas Tech81.5%80.7%
Colorado18.5%19.4%

Tennessee v Auburn

Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · CFB

0.7-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Tennessee71.5%71.2%
Auburn29.5%28.8%

Missouri v Florida

Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · CFB

0.5-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Missouri33.5%34.0%
Florida66.5%66.0%

Washington v USC

Oct 3, 7:30 PM EDT · CFB

0.4-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Washington23.5%23.9%
USC76.5%76.1%

UCF v Houston

Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · CFB

0.3-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
UCF20.5%20.8%
Houston79.5%79.2%

Mississippi St. v Alabama

Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · CFB

0.1-pt divergence
TeamKalshiFair value
Mississippi St.33.5%33.6%
Alabama66.5%66.4%

How the fair value is set

We take a sharp sportsbook's two-sided moneyline, convert each price to a probability, and remove the bookmaker's vig by normalizing the two sides to sum to 1. The result is the market's best public estimate, and where Kalshi diverges from it is the Scopes Divergence.

Scopes Fair Value
:
an independent probability estimate computed from a sharp sportsbook’s de-vigged two-sided moneyline.
Scopes Divergence
:
the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.

Background reading: how de-vigging a sportsbook line works: why the two sides of a line sum to more than 100%, and how removing the margin turns the odds into a probability. Market structure, not a strategy.

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