Reference · sources
Sources
Every Scopes Fair Value is built from an independent input, chosen so it is not the same source the market settles on. This page lists that input for each desk, the publisher, and its rights status. The status is read straight from our rights ledger in code: a public-domain input is labelled public domain; anything still under rights review is labelled pending, and nothing pending is ever shown as licensed.
Fair-value inputs, by desk
| Desk | What we use | Publisher | Rights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | Fed-funds-futures-implied rate path, with Cleveland Fed and Atlanta Fed nowcasts for CPI and GDP | CME Group and the Federal Reserve system | Licensing pending |
| Polls | The Scopes Poll Composite, a median of qualifying public polls (one per pollster) | Scopes, over published public polls | Pending review |
| Sports | A de-vigged sharp-book line (Pinnacle), independent of the settlement venue | The Odds API | Licensing pending |
| Stocks | Options-implied probabilities from the Cboe SPX chain, plus realized volatility | Cboe | Licensing pending |
| Energy | Options-implied probabilities from oil-ETF (USO) options on the Cboe chain | Cboe | Licensing pending |
| Weather | The National Weather Service daily-high forecast, independent of the settlement source | National Weather Service (NOAA) | Public domain |
| Catastrophe | NOAA seasonal outlooks and GEFS ensemble tracks, with HURDAT2 landfall climatology | NOAA | Public domain |
Carve-out: within Rates, the recession benchmark uses the FRED 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, which is US-government public data and is clean even though the fed-funds and FOMC inputs on the same desk are still in licensing review.
Market prices
The market side of every divergence is the venue price. These are venue-derived and are withheld from data delivery until redistribution rights are on file with each venue. The public record still shows the gap and who was right; the raw venue price is not redistributed.
| Kalshi | Exchange price (mid or last) | Redistribution pending |
| Polymarket | Exchange price (mid or last) | Redistribution pending |
Settled outcomes are public facts. Scopes-derived fields (the identifiers, the methodology version, the resolution, the append-only revision trail) are ours to publish. See Press and citation for how to cite the record.