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| Event | Outcome | Resolves | Kalshi | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸Alaska Senate 2026opened Sep 12 | Republican | Nov 2 | 29.5% | 28.2% | 59.7% | 31.4 pts |
| ▸Alaska Senate 2026opened Sep 12 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 70.5% | 71.8% | 40.3% | 31.4 pts |
| ▸US House control after 2026 | Republicans keep the House | Nov 3 | 8.6% | 8.4% | 22.8% | 14.3 pts |
| ▸US House control after 2026 | Democrats take the House | Nov 3 | 91.5% | 91.6% | 77.3% | 14.3 pts |
| ▸US Senate control after 2026 | Democrats take the Senate | Nov 3 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 50.5% | 12.0 pts |
| ▸US Senate control after 2026 | Republicans keep the Senate | Nov 3 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 48.8% | 11.3 pts |
| ▸Maine Senate 2026 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 59.5% | 59.5% | 70.5% | 11.1 pts |
| ▸Maine Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 2 | 40.5% | 40.5% | 29.4% | 11.1 pts |
| ▸Kansas Senate 2026 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 29.5% | — | 39.2% | 9.7 pts |
| ▸Kansas Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 2 | 70.5% | — | 60.8% | 9.7 pts |
| ▸US recession in 2026 (NBER) | Recession | Jan 30 | 4.5% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 9.2 pts |
| ▸Iowa Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 3 | 58.9% | 58.5% | 65.9% | 7.4 pts |
| ▸Iowa Senate 2026 | Democrat | Nov 3 | 41.1% | 41.5% | 34.1% | 7.4 pts |
| ▸Ohio Senate (special) 2026 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 60.5% | 60.1% | 64.9% | 4.8 pts |
| ▸Ohio Senate (special) 2026 | Republican | Nov 2 | 39.5% | 39.9% | 35.1% | 4.8 pts |
| ▸Texas Senate 2026 | Democrats win | Nov 3 | 61.8% | 62.5% | 66.3% | 4.5 pts |
| ▸Texas Senate 2026 | Republicans win | Nov 3 | 38.2% | 37.5% | 33.7% | 4.5 pts |
| ▸Michigan Senate 2026 | Democrat | Nov 3 | 73.5% | 72.5% | 76.4% | 3.9 pts |
| ▸Michigan Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 3 | 26.5% | 27.5% | 23.6% | 3.9 pts |
| ▸North Carolina Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 2 | 5.7% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 3.6 pts |
| ▸North Carolina Senate 2026 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 94.3% | 95.5% | 91.9% | 3.6 pts |
| ▸Fed funds path - year-end 2026 | Fed elevated in 2026 (no cuts / rate above 3.50% at year-end) | Jan 30 | 98.0% | 96.5% | 99.7% | 3.2 pts |
| ▸Georgia Senate 2026 | Democratic | Nov 2 | 95.0% | 96.4% | 94.0% | 2.4 pts |
| ▸Georgia Senate 2026 | Republican | Nov 2 | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 2.4 pts |
Market price (Kalshi, Polymarket) vs. the Scopes Fair Value. Prices are point-in-time and for research, not trading advice.
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