Independent probability data & reference
The record
Scopes Reference™
The historical, point-in-time record of event-market probabilities. For every venue-contract-timestamp, Scopes preserves the market price beside an independent Scopes Fair Value, the divergence, the liquidity, and, once it settles, the outcome. Two clocks on every record: when it happened, and when Scopes recorded it.
One point-in-time record
What the record contains
| event_id · contract_id · outcome | Stable identifiers for the event, the venue contract, and the outcome. |
| event_family · desk · venue | Grouping key, desk, and the market venue. |
| observed_at | World clock: when this market/benchmark state existed. |
| recorded_at | Knowledge clock: when Scopes wrote (or revised) the row. |
| market_probability | The venue-implied probability at observed_at. |
| scopes_fair_value | The independently-computed fair value, never the market price. |
| scopes_divergence | market_probability − scopes_fair_value, in points. |
| liquidity | Best bid/ask + sizes, spread; order-book depth where captured. |
| benchmark_sources | The model slugs + versions that fed the fair value. |
| methodology_version | The versioned method under which the fair value was computed. |
| resolution_status · outcome_result · resolution_time | Open/resolved, the settled result, and its world-time settlement. |
Full field-level definitions, both time dimensions, and revision semantics: /api/v1/dictionary.
Bitemporal integrity
The append-only promise
Scopes Reference is append-only. Corrections supersede; they never overwrite. Every revision carries its reason and its timestamp, and prior states remain queryable forever.
Two independent clocks make the record auditable. as_of=T returns the state as it existed in the world by T, with no lookahead. knowledge_as_of=K returns what Scopes itself had recorded by K, so a correction made later is visible under as_of but not under an earlier knowledge_as_of. The two combine. A pinned past query is reproducible: the same inputs return the same record, forever.
See it on a real resolved event: step system time back and the record shows only what Scopes had recorded by then:
- Records known by then
- 116 / 116
- Latest known market price
- 95.7%
- Elo (Scopes Fair Value)
- 54.6%
- Scopes Divergence
- +41.1 pts
- Recorded at
- Jul 19, 10:00 PM
Coverage
Cross-venue prediction-market analytics across the Scopes desks (rates, polls, sports, stocks, energy, and the climate desks), collected since July 2026, with methodology versioning and liquidity capture from day one. Coverage deepens as desks and history accumulate; extracts are scoped to what you license.
Free sample
A resolved event, end to end
The World Cup Final, a resolved event, as point-in-time records in the Reference schema. The download matches the numbers shown on the World Cup board for the same timestamps.
| observed_at | outcome | market | Scopes Fair Value | divergence | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2:34 PM EDT | Spain | 59.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 | won |
| Jul 18, 6:00 PM EDT | Spain | 58.9% | 54.6% | +4.3 | won |
| Jul 18, 9:15 PM EDT | Spain | 58.7% | 54.6% | +4.1 | won |
| Jul 19, 12:45 AM EDT | Spain | 59.3% | 54.6% | +4.7 | won |
| Jul 19, 3:45 AM EDT | Spain | 58.8% | 54.6% | +4.2 | won |
| Jul 19, 7:15 AM EDT | Spain | 58.8% | 54.6% | +4.2 | won |
| Jul 19, 10:30 AM EDT | Spain | 58.1% | 54.6% | +3.6 | won |
| Jul 19, 2:00 PM EDT | Spain | 58.3% | 54.6% | +3.7 | won |
One record at one instant
An evidence object
The sample above is one event's arc over time. This is the orthogonal view: a single recorded instant of the same kind of event, every source that was captured stacked side by side, each with its methodology and its rights family. This is what one row of the reference asset actually is.
World Cup Final: Spain vs. Argentina (world-cup)
Event time not recorded · Recorded by Scopes at Jul 19, 6:00 PM EDT
| Source | Value | Methodology | Rights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 95.7% | venue quote | venue-derived |
| Polymarket | 91.5% | venue quote | venue-derived |
| Scopes Fair Value | 54.6% | Elo | Scopes-derived (SFV) |
| Scopes Divergence | +41.1 pts | market minus fair value | venue-derived |
Venue values, and the divergence that embeds them, are venue-derived (gated); the Scopes Fair Value is Scopes-derived. Each field's family is the same one enforced in the data dictionary.
Delivery
- Historical extracts: CSV / Parquet, scoped to the desks, window, and use you need.
- Point-in-time API: The existing /api/v1 with as_of and knowledge_as_of.
- Snowflake share: on request.
Delivered subject to source-data rights. Scopes-derived fields (the fair value, methodology, resolutions) ship to everyone; venue-derived fields (market price, divergence, liquidity) require your own verified entitlement to that venue, or Scopes’ redistribution authorization where held. Each field’s family is marked in the data dictionary.
Pricing: licensed per scope of data and use. Inquire.
A module of Scopes Reference
Scopes Valuation Reference
For a held event-contract position, the Valuation Reference module provides an independent reference mark: the Scopes Fair Value at a chosen point in time, with its full provenance (benchmark sources, methodology version, and the liquidity around it). It is built from the same bitemporal record, so a mark is reproducible and auditable.
The Valuation Reference is an independent reference mark, not a formal appraisal or certification.
The fences
- Research and information only, not investment, betting, or trading advice.
- The Valuation Reference module provides an independent reference mark, not a formal appraisal or certification.
- Delivered subject to source-data rights: venue-derived fields (a venue’s prices, divergence, liquidity) ship only under your entitlement to that venue or Scopes’ authorization; some fair values await input-source review.
Every day of the record is fingerprinted, anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain, and published. Anyone can verify a day or a single row without using our application. See the integrity ledger.
Institutional
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Scopes Reference™, delivered subject to source-data licenses. Scopes is research and information only, not investment advice.