Crude oil odds vs. options-implied fair value
Kalshi's WTI crude above/below markets next to the options-implied fair value: the market's own risk-neutral probability that oil settles past a price, read from oil-ETF options and mapped to the WTI level. The gap is where the exchange disagrees with the options market. Timely with supply risk in focus (Strait of Hormuz, Suez).
As of Oct 1, 8:01 PM EDTDelayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
WTI crude
This weeksettles Oct 5
| Market | Kalshi | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude ≥ $96.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 16.0% | 22.3% | 6.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $98.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 7.0% | 13.2% | 6.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $98.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 5.5% | 11.6% | 6.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $97.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 9.0% | 15.1% | 6.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $97.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 11.5% | 17.2% | 5.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $99.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 4.5% | 10.2% | 5.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $96.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 14.0% | 19.6% | 5.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $95.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 20.0% | 25.2% | 5.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $86.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 94.0% | 88.8% | 5.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $89.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 82.0% | 76.9% | 5.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $90.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 75.0% | 70.0% | 5.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $88.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 87.5% | 82.6% | 4.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $99.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 4.0% | 8.9% | 4.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $90.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 71.0% | 66.1% | 4.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $89.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 78.5% | 73.6% | 4.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $88.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 84.5% | 79.9% | 4.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $87.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 89.5% | 84.9% | 4.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $95.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 24.0% | 28.5% | 4.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $87.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 91.5% | 87.0% | 4.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $86.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 94.5% | 90.4% | 4.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $85.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 97.0% | 92.9% | 4.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $91.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 66.0% | 62.0% | 4.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $85.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 95.5% | 91.7% | 3.8 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $91.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 61.0% | 57.7% | 3.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $94.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 29.0% | 32.1% | 3.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $92.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 56.0% | 53.2% | 2.8 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $94.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 34.0% | 36.0% | 2.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $92.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 50.0% | 48.8% | 1.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $93.49thinsettles Oct 5 | 45.5% | 44.4% | 1.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $93.99thinsettles Oct 5 | 39.0% | 40.1% | 1.1 pts |
This monthsettles Nov 3
| Market | Kalshi | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude ≥ $86.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 45.5% | 64.8% | 19.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $96.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 53.0% | 36.3% | 16.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $80.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 64.5% | 79.6% | 15.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $84.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 56.0% | 70.2% | 14.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $57.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 85.0% | 98.5% | 13.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $90.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 40.0% | 53.1% | 13.2 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $97.99settles Nov 3 | 21.5% | 33.8% | 12.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $71.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 81.0% | 92.4% | 11.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $73.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 80.5% | 90.5% | 10.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $87.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 52.0% | 62.0% | 10.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $83.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 63.0% | 72.8% | 9.8 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $72.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 82.0% | 91.5% | 9.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $74.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 80.5% | 89.3% | 8.8 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $102.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 14.5% | 23.2% | 8.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $77.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 77.0% | 85.1% | 8.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $85.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 59.5% | 67.6% | 8.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $81.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 70.0% | 77.5% | 7.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $98.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 24.0% | 31.4% | 7.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $105.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 11.5% | 18.4% | 6.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $64.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.0% | 96.7% | 6.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $65.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.0% | 96.5% | 6.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $71.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 86.5% | 92.9% | 6.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $104.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 13.5% | 19.9% | 6.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $66.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 89.5% | 95.8% | 6.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $65.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.0% | 96.3% | 6.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $89.99settles Nov 3 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 6.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $108.99settles Nov 3 | 8.5% | 14.5% | 6.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $67.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 89.5% | 95.3% | 5.8 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $106.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 11.5% | 17.0% | 5.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $110.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 7.0% | 12.5% | 5.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $92.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 42.0% | 47.3% | 5.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $79.99settles Nov 3 | 76.5% | 81.6% | 5.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $67.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.5% | 95.5% | 5.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $111.99settles Nov 3 | 6.5% | 11.5% | 5.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $68.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.0% | 95.0% | 5.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $66.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 91.5% | 96.0% | 4.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $78.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 79.0% | 83.4% | 4.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $69.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 90.0% | 94.4% | 4.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $100.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 23.0% | 27.1% | 4.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $109.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 9.5% | 13.5% | 4.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $112.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 7.0% | 10.7% | 3.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $94.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 38.0% | 41.6% | 3.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $95.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 42.5% | 38.9% | 3.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $72.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 88.5% | 92.0% | 3.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $103.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 18.0% | 21.5% | 3.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $64.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 93.5% | 96.9% | 3.4 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $93.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 47.5% | 44.4% | 3.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $101.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 22.0% | 25.1% | 3.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $115.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 5.5% | 8.6% | 3.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $113.99settles Nov 3 | 7.0% | 9.9% | 2.9 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $114.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 2.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $82.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 72.5% | 75.2% | 2.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $75.99settles Nov 3 | 85.5% | 88.0% | 2.5 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $63.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 95.0% | 97.1% | 2.1 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $69.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 92.0% | 94.0% | 2.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $116.99settles Nov 3 | 6.0% | 8.0% | 2.0 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $107.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 14.0% | 15.7% | 1.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $91.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 48.5% | 50.2% | 1.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $99.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 27.5% | 29.2% | 1.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $88.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 57.5% | 59.1% | 1.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $70.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 94.0% | 93.3% | 0.7 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $76.99settles Nov 3 | 86.0% | 86.6% | 0.6 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $70.49thinsettles Nov 3 | 94.0% | 93.7% | 0.3 pts |
| WTI crude ≥ $68.99thinsettles Nov 3 | 95.0% | 94.7% | 0.3 pts |
How the fair value is set
An oil option's price already encodes the market's probability that crude finishes past a strike: the risk-neutral P(price > K) equals the slope of the call price across strikes. There's no free feed for CME/ICE WTI-futures options, so we read the CBOE-listed oil-ETF options (USO), which tracks front-month WTI, and map each Kalshi $/barrel strike into the ETF's price space via the live USO/WTI ratio. An independent, market-derived fair value to measure the exchange price against. (The ETF's roll/tracking error is the residual caveat; the thin-market flag guards stale quotes.)
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from oil-ETF options (USO) on the CBOE chain, mapped to the WTI price.
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
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