NBA odds vs. the sharp book
Kalshi's game prices next to the de-vigged sharp-book fair value: the sharpest line in the world, with the bookmaker's margin removed. Sorted by the widest divergences.
As of Oct 26, 8:01 PM EDTDelayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
Warriors v Nuggets
Oct 26, 10:10 PM EDT · NBA
Jazz v Grizzlies
Oct 26, 9:10 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Rockets v Hawks
Oct 26, 8:40 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Suns v Thunder
Oct 26, 8:10 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Bucks v Pacers
Oct 26, 8:10 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Heat v Mavericks
Oct 26, 7:41 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Bulls v Celtics
Oct 26, 7:40 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Timberwolves v Cavaliers
Oct 26, 7:13 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
Wizards v Hornets
Oct 26, 7:10 PM EDT · NBA
in play · pregame line
How the fair value is set
We take a sharp sportsbook's two-sided moneyline, convert each price to a probability, and remove the bookmaker's vig by normalizing the two sides to sum to 1. The result is the market's best public estimate, and where Kalshi diverges from it is the Scopes Divergence.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from a sharp sportsbook’s de-vigged two-sided moneyline.
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
Background reading: how de-vigging a sportsbook line works: why the two sides of a line sum to more than 100%, and how removing the margin turns the odds into a probability. Market structure, not a strategy.
Get the Week in Review (free)
A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk: what moved, what resolved, what's ahead. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.