Independent probability data & reference
For institutions
Scopes for funds, administrators & researchers
The point-in-time independent record of event-market probabilities, licensed and delivered for institutional use. Four surfaces, one bitemporal record underneath.
Flagship
Scopes Reference™
The historical, point-in-time, bitemporal record: for every venue-contract-timestamp, the market price beside an independent benchmark, the divergence, the liquidity, and the outcome, with two clocks on every row.
Explore Scopes Reference →Machine access
Data & API
The read API with as-of and knowledge-as-of semantics, plus scoped historical extracts (CSV / Parquet / Snowflake) for the desks and window you license. Custom benchmark or index design available on request.
See the API & data →Governance
Benchmark Administration
An independent measuring stick for event-contract exposure, constructed, versioned, administered. Standard families licensed non-exclusively; the client has no discretion over the index.
See Benchmark Administration →A module of Scopes Reference
Scopes Valuation Reference
For a held event-contract position, an independent reference mark at a chosen point in time, with full provenance, a reference mark, not a formal appraisal.
See the Valuation Reference →Who uses it
No tips or recommendations, just measurement, for four kinds of readers.
Cite a measured answer
Sign your name to the number.
Clients ask what the prediction markets say. Cite a measured answer: market vs. model, side by side, with a public record of who's been right when they diverge.
“I need the track record before I stake my name on either.”
Read or hear the newsroom conversation →Read the odds without trading them
Never placed a bet. Needs the odds anyway.
Bill deadlines, election outcomes, economic prints: market-implied probabilities as forecast inputs, translated and calibrated, for people whose plans depend on what happens next.
“What are the odds, and can I trust them?”
Read or hear the hedging-desk conversation →Find where markets disagree
The terminal on one screen, Kalshi on the other.
Futures say one thing, the nowcast another, the exchange a third. The divergence table is your pre-FOMC checklist: where the markets disagree, how long the gap's been open, and what moved it.
“Show me where the markets disagree before I decide who's right.”
Read or hear the fund conversation →Benchmark the exchange against the sharp line
Sharp enough to get limited.
You already benchmark exchange prices against the sharp line, by hand. We compute the de-vigged fair value every 15 minutes, flag thin markets before you chase a stale quote, and keep the history.
“I need to know when the exchange is off the sharp line.”
Read or hear the platform conversation →Coverage
Cross-venue prediction-market analytics across the Scopes desks (rates, polls, sports, stocks, energy, and the climate desks), collected since July 2026, with methodology versioning and liquidity capture from day one. Coverage deepens as desks and history accumulate; extracts are scoped to what you license.
In development
Scopes Academic
Non-commercial access for academic research: free, or a nominal annual fee, for faculty and students at a recognized institution. You may publish your findings freely, including findings critical of Scopes; that independence is the point. Access covers the research API tier and Scopes-derived fields. Venue-derived fields stay under the same rights gating as every other client (bring your own venue entitlement, or receive them where Scopes is authorized), and we refer venue-level data needs to the relevant exchange's research program.
Each dataset version you cite is a frozen, versioned object with its own DOI, tied to a methodology version and a snapshot date, so a paper cites something reproducible rather than a moving feed. Access requires an institutional email and a faculty-sponsor attestation; commercial use is not permitted under these terms.
Opening after the citation and data-integrity work now underway.
Independence policy: the Scopes Fair Value is computed from independent benchmarks, never from a venue's own price. Scopes takes no position in the markets it measures and is research and information only, not investment, betting, or trading advice.
Verifiable record: every day of the record is fingerprinted, anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain, and published. Anyone can verify a day or a single row without using our application. See the integrity ledger.
Institutional inquiry
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Tell us what you're evaluating and the scope of data and use you're considering. Everything here is licensed per scope, we'll follow up on delivery and terms.
Delivered subject to source-data licenses. Scopes is research and information only, not investment advice.