Products

Four things we do with one record.

Every product is computed from the same timestamped, append-only record of prediction-market prices, anchored daily to the Bitcoin blockchain. Nothing is revised; corrections are appended.

01PublishCalibration IndexThe independent benchmark of how well prediction-market prices are calibrated against outcomes.Calibration Index →02MeasureMarket QualityHow a series behaves: calibration, divergence, depth, releases, resolution. Per series, monthly.Market Quality →03ProveReference ReportsWhat the market was at any moment, with a proof anyone can check.Reference Reports →04ScoreVerificationAnyone who publishes a probability, scored on the record under published rules.Verification →

The record is the asset. The index is computed from it under a published methodology. The other three products are the same record applied to a series, a moment, or a forecaster. Access to the record itself, by research subscription, API, or license, is described under Pricing and Institutions.

Everyone quotes the odds. These are the four ways we keep score.

The fences

Scopes measures. It does not forecast, advise, or recommend. Rules are specified in advance and versioned. Corrections are appended, never overwritten. No positions in covered contracts. Delivered subject to source-data rights.