Scopes
Scopes Letter <letter@scopes.com>Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Week in Review: the Alaska Senate market jumps 25 points, markets still far above our model

The calendar

No rates or polls events resolve in the next 14 days. The sports board stays active: Bills vs Vikings on Nov 10, then a full college football Saturday on Nov 14 including Miami (FL) vs Duke and Texas A&M at Tennessee. Sports, energy, and stock markets settle continuously (see the desk sections).

Market vs. fair value

The largest move this week was on the polls desk, where the market price for a Democratic hold in the Alaska Senate race rose about 25 points, even as it stays well above our benchmark. Stocks and energy showed the widest standing gaps against options-implied odds.

Polls

The biggest week-over-week move on the board.

  • Alaska Senate 2026, Democratic: market 97.4% (Kalshi) / 98.5% (Polymarket) vs benchmark 45.4% (+25.2 pts w/w, widest single move this week)
  • Alaska Senate 2026, Republican: market 2.7% / 1.6% vs benchmark 54.6% (-25.2 pts w/w), the mirror of the Democratic move

Rates

Macro gaps were quiet this week.

  • US recession in 2026 (NBER): market 2.5% / 3.8% vs benchmark 16.5% (flat w/w)
  • US recession in 2027 (NBER): market 21.5% / 27.5% vs benchmark 16.5% (+2 pts w/w)
  • Fed funds path, year-end 2026 (elevated, no cuts): market 98.5% / 98.1% vs benchmark 98.1% (-1 pt w/w, nearly aligned)

Stocks · S&P 500

Widest gaps against CBOE SPX options-implied odds.

  • SPX between 7400 and 7425: market 29.5% vs options-implied 54.0% (gap 28 pts, market below)
  • SPX between 7375 and 7400: market 61.5% vs options-implied 32.0% (gap 20 pts, market above)
  • SPX between 7800 and 8000: market 12.5% vs options-implied 4.8% (gap 7 pts, market above)

Sports · NBA

Largest divergence vs the sharp book.

  • Pistons: market 36.5% vs sharp fair 26.8% (gap 9.7 pts, market high)
  • Lakers: market 63.5% vs sharp fair 73.2% (gap 9.7 pts, market low)

Sports · NFL

  • Jets: market 18.5% vs sharp fair 21.6% (gap 3.1 pts)

Sports · NCAAF

  • Oklahoma St.: market 58.5% vs sharp fair 61.5% (gap 3.0 pts)
  • Colorado: market 19.5% vs sharp fair 22.5% (gap 3.0 pts)
  • Missouri: market 14.0% vs sharp fair 16.9% (gap 2.9 pts)

Energy · WTI

Gaps vs oil-ETF options-implied odds stayed modest.

  • WTI above $94.99: market 9.0% vs options-implied 16.0% (gap 4.3 pts, market low)
  • WTI above $84.99: market 95.0% vs options-implied 87.5% (gap 4.2 pts, market high)
  • WTI above $92.99: market 21.0% vs options-implied 34.0% (gap 4.1 pts, market low)

Scope of the week

Worth watching: the SPX 7375 to 7425 band, where the market and CBOE options-implied odds disagree by 20 to 28 points on which 25-point bucket the index lands in. It is an observation about where the two readings part, not a recommendation. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; this recap is research and information, not investment advice.

Scorecard

Resolved this week: on the stocks desk, SPX 7375 to 7399.9999 (yes) came in correct for +354.5%. The weather desk was mixed: two correct (Los Angeles 83 to 84, no, +153.2%; Los Angeles above 86, no, +852.4%) against five that missed at -100% each. The running record stands at 516-619, average return 99.1%. Across 735 resolved flags, the split is 348 to the Scopes Fair Value side and 387 to the market side, within chance (p = 0.16).

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