The calendar
No rates or polls events resolve in the next 14 days, but the board is far from quiet: sports and commodity markets settle continuously (see the desk sections). The slate ahead includes NCAAF games on Oct 17 (Miami at Florida St., Auburn at Georgia, Alabama at Tennessee) and an NFL Sunday on Oct 18 (Texans at Jaguars, Ravens at Browns).
Market vs. fair value
A quiet week for week-over-week moves: nothing in the deltas shifted more than two points. The widest standing gaps remain in polls (Alaska Senate) and in energy, where WTI contracts sit well below their options-implied benchmark.
Polls
The widest market-vs-benchmark gaps on the board are in Senate and governor races.
- Alaska Senate (Republican) - market 25.5% vs benchmark 74.8% (49 pt gap, widest on the board)
- Texas Governor (Republican) - market 75.5% vs benchmark 54.4% (23 pt gap)
- US Senate control, Democrats take the Senate - market 61.9% vs benchmark 41.3% (22 pt gap)
- US House control, Democrats take the House - market 89.6% vs benchmark 74.0%
- Iowa Senate (Republican) - market 56.9% vs benchmark 43.9%
- Kansas Senate (Republican) - market 64.5% vs benchmark 61.4% (+2 pts w/w, the largest poll move this week)
Rates
Macro moves were small this week.
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 20.5% vs benchmark 12.1% (+2 pts w/w)
- US recession in 2026 (NBER) - market 4.5% vs benchmark 12.1% (unchanged w/w)
- Fed elevated in 2026 (no cuts / rate above 3.50% at year-end) - market 98.5% vs benchmark 99.2% (+0.5 pt w/w)
Energy · WTI
WTI contracts sit consistently below their oil-ETF options-implied benchmark.
- WTI above $66.99 - market 59.5% vs options-implied 91.5% (40 pt gap)
- WTI above $67.99 - market 59.5% vs options-implied 99.0% (40 pt gap)
- WTI above $64.99 - market 60.0% vs options-implied 91.5% (40 pt gap)
- WTI above $68.99 - market 61.0% vs options-implied 99.0% (38 pt gap)
Stocks · S&P 500
S&P 500 range markets show moderate gaps against CBOE SPX options.
- SPX between 7700 and 7725 - market 36.5% vs options-implied 38.0% (20 pt gap)
- SPX between 7725 and 7750 - market 57.5% vs options-implied 51.0% (19 pt gap)
- SPX between 7750 and 7775 - market 40.5% vs options-implied 45.0% (17 pt gap)
- SPX between 7675 and 7700 - market 27.5% vs options-implied 16.0%
Sports · NCAAF
College football gaps against the sharp book are small this week.
- Georgia (vs Auburn) - market 91.5% vs sharp book 88.5% (3 pt gap)
- Auburn (vs Georgia) - market 9.0% vs sharp book 11.6%
Sports · NFL
- Cardinals - market 12.5% vs sharp book 14.0%
- Rams - market 87.5% vs sharp book 86.0%
- 49ers - market 77.5% vs sharp book 76.1%
Scope of the week
Worth watching: the WTI contracts, which sit near 60% against an options-implied benchmark closer to 91% across several thresholds. That is one of the widest standing divergences on the board, and it is an observation of what the market may be missing, not a recommendation. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; this recap is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Eight flags resolved recently. Seven energy calls landed, all on the yes side, with returns running from 100% to 400% (the WTI ladder from $93.49 up to $96.49). The exception was a weather flag, Los Angeles 74-75 degrees, entered at 1.5% and resolved false at -100%. The running record stands at 364-451 with an average return of 96.8%.
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