The calendar
A quiet week for macro moves, with the Kansas Senate the only sizeable shift. The widest standing gaps sit in energy (WTI) and the Alaska Senate.
Market vs. fair value
The one move of note this week came from the Kansas Senate, where the market shifted 8 points toward the Democrat. Elsewhere the board was calm on the macro side, while energy and stocks carried the widest standing gaps.
Polls
Kansas was the only outcome that moved more than a couple of points this week.
- Kansas Senate (Democratic) - market 37.5% vs benchmark 41.0% (+8 pts w/w, the widest single move this week)
- Kansas Senate (Republican) - market 62.5% vs benchmark 59.0% (-8 pts w/w)
- Alaska Senate (Republican) - market 26.5% vs benchmark 67.8% (41-point gap, the widest standing divergence on the board)
- Iowa Senate (Democrat) - market 43.9% vs benchmark 59.5% (16-point gap)
- Maine Senate (Democratic) - market 57.9% vs benchmark 72.5% (15-point gap)
- US Senate control (Democrats take) - market 63.8% vs benchmark 51.6%
- US House control (Democrats take) - market 90.5% vs benchmark 79.3%
Rates
The macro reads barely moved.
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 18.5% vs benchmark 11.4% (-1.5 pts w/w)
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026 - market 98.0% vs benchmark 98.9% (+0.5 pt w/w)
- US recession in 2026 (NBER) - market 4.5% vs benchmark 11.4% (unchanged w/w)
Energy · WTI
WTI above the mid-$60s is where market and the oil-ETF options read diverge most on the whole board.
- WTI above $65.49 - market 59.5% vs options-implied 94.5% (39-point gap)
- WTI above $67.99 - market 59.0% vs options-implied 94.5% (39-point gap)
- WTI above $64.99 - market 60.0% vs options-implied 94.5% (38-point gap)
Stocks · S&P 500
The SPX range markets ran a little rich against the CBOE options read near 7,750.
- SPX between 7,750 and 7,775 - market 86.5% vs options-implied 78.0% (13-point gap)
- SPX between 7,725 and 7,750 - market 9.5% vs options-implied 8.0%
- SPX between 7,600 and 7,800 - market 12.0% vs options-implied 11.0%
- SPX between 8,000 and 8,200 - market 19.5% vs options-implied 20.0%
Sports · NCAAF / NFL
Sports gaps were small this week, all within a couple of points of the sharp book.
- NCAAF Kansas - market 13.5% vs sharp book 15.9% (2.4-point gap)
- NCAAF Utah - market 86.5% vs sharp book 84.1%
- NCAAF Arkansas - market 16.5% vs sharp book 18.7%
- NFL Commanders - market 62.5% vs sharp book 64.3%
Scope of the week
Worth watching: the Alaska Senate, where the market sits at 26.5% for the Republican against a benchmark of 67.8%, the widest standing gap on the board. It is an observation on where market and benchmark disagree, not a recommendation. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; this recap is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Recently resolved: SPX 7,800-7,824.99 (yes) hit for +316.7%, while SPX 7,825-7,849.99 (yes) missed at -100%. On the energy desk, WTI at or above $88.99 (no) resolved correct at +63.9%. The running record stands at 322-409 with an average return of 96.9%.
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