The calendar
MLB wraps its regular season this week (Yankees vs Orioles, Phillies vs Rays), and the NFL returns Sunday with the Commanders at Seahawks and Steelers at Bengals. College football fills Saturday, including Ole Miss at Florida and Texas A&M at LSU. No rates or polls events resolve in the next 14 days; sports markets settle continuously (see the desk sections).
Market vs. fair value
The polls desk had the biggest moves this week, led by an 8.6-point swing in the Michigan Senate market. The widest market-vs-benchmark gap on the board remains Alaska Senate, where the market and our benchmark disagree by nearly 40 points.
Polls
Week-over-week moves came almost entirely from Senate races.
- Michigan Senate (Democrat) - market moved to 72.8% from 64.2% (+8.6 pts w/w, the widest single move); benchmark sits at 72.3%
- Ohio Senate special (Democratic) - market 59.1% vs benchmark 72.4% (+4.6 pts w/w)
- Maine Senate (Republican) - market 36.1% vs benchmark 36.4% (+3.6 pts w/w)
- Iowa Senate (Democrat) - market 43.5% vs benchmark 28.1% (+4.0 pts w/w)
- Alaska Senate (Republican) - market 28.8% vs benchmark 67.1% (-2.7 pts w/w, still the widest gap at ~40 pts)
- US House control (Republicans keep) - market 8.5% vs benchmark 31.3% (-2.0 pts w/w)
- US Senate control (Democrats take) - market 61.1% vs benchmark 41.0% (+2.6 pts w/w)
Rates
Macro barely moved.
- Fed funds path, year-end 2026 (elevated, no cuts) - market 97.5% vs benchmark 99.7%, flat w/w
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 24.5% vs benchmark 13.9% (+3.0 pts w/w)
- US recession in 2026 (NBER) - market 5.5% vs benchmark 13.9% (+1.0 pt w/w)
Sports
Gaps against the sharp book stayed small this week.
- NFL Chiefs - market 85.5% vs sharp book 83.0% (2.5-pt gap, widest here)
- NCAAF Houston - market 89.5% vs sharp book 87.1% (2.4-pt gap)
- NCAAF Indiana - market 92.5% vs sharp book 90.2% (2.3-pt gap)
- NCAAF Ohio St. - market 96.5% vs sharp book 94.5% (2.0-pt gap)
Energy · WTI
The WTI 'above' contracts sit well below where oil-ETF options price them.
- WTI above $64.99 - market 60.0% vs options-implied 100% (36-pt gap, widest here)
- WTI above $66.49 - market 60.0% vs options-implied 100% (36-pt gap)
- WTI above $65.49 - market 61.5% vs options-implied 100% (35-pt gap)
- WTI above $64.49 - market 62.5% vs options-implied 100% (34-pt gap)
Stocks · S&P 500
Divergences against CBOE SPX options clustered in the 7,700 range.
- SPX between 7,700 and 7,725 - market 77.5% vs options-implied 74.0% (largest gap here)
- SPX between 7,675 and 7,700 - market 20.5% vs options-implied 21.0%
- SPX between 7,200 and 7,400 - market 4.5% vs options-implied 2.0%
- SPX between 8,000 and 8,200 - market 19.0% vs options-implied 17.0%
- SPX between 7,400 and 7,600 - market 10.5% vs options-implied 15.0%
Scope of the week
Worth watching: the Alaska Senate gap, where the market has the Republican near 29% while our benchmark reads 67%, a spread of roughly 40 points that held wide even as the market drifted slightly this week. It is an observation, not a recommendation. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; this note is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Resolved recently: on stocks, an SPX 7,650-7,674.99 'no' hit (+412.8%), while two 'yes' range bets (7,750-7,774.99 and 7,775-7,799.99) both lost (-100% each). On energy, two WTI 'no' calls (above $91.99 and above $90.49) both resolved wrong (-100% each). The running record stands at 246-363 with an average return of 78.1%. Across 609 resolved flags, the split favors the Scopes Fair Value side (p < 0.01).
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