The calendar
No rates or polls events resolve in the next 14 days. The board ahead is college football: Indiana at Northwestern (market has Indiana 92.5%) and Louisville at Wake Forest (Louisville 83%) on Sep 25-26, plus lopsided lines on Texas Tech (99.5%) and Miami FL (99.5%). Sports and commodity markets settle continuously (see the desk sections).
Market vs. fair value
Polls did the most moving this week: Senate control flipped from a Republican lean to a Democratic one in the market, and Texas swung nearly ten points. Rates and recession odds barely nudged.
Polls
The week's largest moves were all in Senate races.
- US Senate control (Democrats take) - market 58.9% vs benchmark 41.4% (+10.4 pts w/w, the widest single move; Republican-keep side fell to 41.1% from 51.5%)
- Texas Senate (Democrats win) - market 59.5% vs benchmark 57.3% (+9.5 pts w/w)
- Alaska Senate (Democratic) - market 70.8% vs benchmark 32.1% (+5.6 pts w/w, widest standing gap at 41.4 pts)
- US House control (Democrats take) - market 90.6% vs benchmark 67.0% (+5.1 pts w/w; Republican-keep side down to 9.4%)
- Michigan Senate (Democrat) - market 65.5% vs benchmark 62.8% (+4.0 pts w/w)
- Ohio Senate special (Democratic) - market 55.5% vs benchmark 70.5% (+3.0 pts w/w)
- Iowa Senate (Democrat) - market 40.3% vs benchmark 27.3% (+1.8 pts w/w)
- Georgia Senate (Democratic) - market 93.3% vs benchmark 84.7% (+0.9 pts w/w)
Rates
Quiet on the macro side.
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026 - market 97.5% vs benchmark 99.6% (+2.0 pts w/w)
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 23.5% vs benchmark 13.8% (+3.5 pts w/w)
- US recession in 2026 (NBER) - market 5.5% vs benchmark 13.8% (+2.0 pts w/w)
Sports · MLB
World Series futures, no sharp benchmark posted this week.
- Los Angeles Dodgers to win - market 30.0% (no de-vigged fair value available)
- San Diego - market 5.7% (no de-vigged fair value available)
- Chicago WS - market 1.9% (no de-vigged fair value available)
Energy · WTI
The crude ladder shows gaps on both sides of the current price.
- WTI above $97.99 - market 66.0% vs oil-ETF options 36.0% (30 pt gap)
- WTI above $97.49 - market 70.5% vs options 36.0% (34.5 pt gap)
- WTI above $64.99 - market 60.0% vs options 97.0% (37 pt gap the other way)
- WTI above $66.99 - market 59.5% vs options 92.5% (33 pt gap)
Stocks · S&P 500
SPX range markets track CBOE options closely at the middle of the ladder.
- SPX 7625-7650 - market 81.5% vs options 82.0% (near-matched)
- SPX 7650-7675 - market 18.0% vs options 13.0% (5 pt gap)
- SPX 8000-8200 - market 19.0% vs options 17.0% (2 pt gap)
- SPX 7400-7600 - market 12.5% vs options 10.0% (2.5 pt gap)
Scope of the week
Worth watching: the Alaska Senate gap, where the market sits at 70.8% Democratic against a 32.1% benchmark, the widest standing spread on the board at 41.4 points, and it moved another 5.6 points this week. It is an observation, not a call. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls.
Scorecard
Resolved this week: the SPX 7675-7699.99 'no' hit at +700%, and the SPX 7625-7649.99 'yes' missed at -100%. The weather desk (not a live free desk) went split, with LA 75-76 'no' (+141%), LA 78-79 'no' (+365%), and LA 77-78 'yes' (+167%) landing against three misses. Running record: 329-447, average return 59.1%. Across 776 resolved flags the split is beyond chance (p < 0.01). This is research and information, not investment advice.
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