The calendar
July 2026 CPI (YoY) resolves Aug 12 — the market has 'Above 3.4%' at 28% against a 25.3% benchmark, a modest 2.75-point gap.
Market vs. fair value
The rates desk saw the clearest week-over-week movement, with September FOMC and year-end path odds each ticking up 4 points. The widest standing gaps remain in the polls desk, where the market and our benchmark still disagree sharply on Senate and House control.
Polls
The widest market-vs-benchmark gaps this week, though only modest movement.
- Senate — Republicans keep it: market 53.5% vs benchmark 69.0% (15.5-pt gap, widest on the board; market down 3 pts w/w)
- Senate — Democrats take it: market 46.5% vs benchmark 36.4% (up 2 pts w/w)
- House — Republicans keep it: market 16.5% vs benchmark 31.9% (15.4-pt gap, unchanged w/w)
- House — Democrats take it: market 83.5% vs benchmark 68.1% (unchanged w/w)
Rates
The most active desk this week — the market leaned further toward a September hike.
- Sep FOMC Hike: market 55.5% vs benchmark 64.3% (+4 pts w/w, biggest single move)
- Sep FOMC Hold: market 42.5% vs benchmark 35.7% (+4 pts w/w)
- Sep FOMC Cut 25bp: market 1.5% vs benchmark 0% (down 2 pts w/w)
- Year-end path, Fed elevated: Kalshi 86.5% vs Polymarket 88.7% (+4 pts w/w)
- July CPI Above 3.4%: market 28% vs benchmark 25.3% (+1 pt w/w)
Sports · MLB
The largest game-level gaps vs the de-vigged sharp book.
- Cardinals: market 39.5% vs sharp fair 64.1% (24.6-pt gap)
- Yankees: market 60.5% vs sharp fair 35.9% (24.6-pt gap)
- Yankees (second line): market 56.5% vs sharp fair 35.9% (20.6-pt gap)
- Cardinals (second line): market 44.0% vs sharp fair 64.1% (20.1-pt gap)
- Cubs: market 52.5% vs sharp fair 36.0% (16.5-pt gap)
Energy · WTI
Large gaps vs oil-ETF options-implied odds across the crude ladder.
- WTI above $86.99: market 22.5% vs options fair 100% (77.5-pt gap)
- WTI above $69.49: market 50% vs options fair 100% (50-pt gap)
- WTI above $72.49: market 50% vs options fair 100% (50-pt gap)
- WTI above $77.49: market 99% vs options fair 50% (49-pt gap)
Stocks · S&P 500
Range-market gaps vs CBOE SPX options-implied odds.
- SPX 7500–7525 range: market 70% vs options fair 38.5% (31.5-pt gap)
- SPX 7475–7500 range: market 24% vs options fair 55.5% (31.5-pt gap)
- SPX 7575–7600 range: market 26.5% vs options fair 11.0% (15.5-pt gap)
- SPX 7425–7450 range: market 1.5% vs options fair 15.0% (13.5-pt gap)
Scope of the week
Worth watching: the September FOMC hike line, where the market moved up 4 points to 55.5% but still sits below our 64.3% benchmark ahead of the Aug 12 CPI print — a divergence that could tighten quickly on the data. This is an observation, not a recommendation; subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls. As always, this is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Eight sports flags resolved recently — a mixed run. On the winning side: Yankees (+73.9%), Padres (+117.4%), Marlins (+222.6%), and Tigers (+86.9%). On the losing side, four went to zero: Brewers, Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers (each -100%). The running record stands at 51-49 with an average return of 13.3%. Across 100 resolved flags, the split remains within chance (51 to the Scopes Fair Value side, p = 0.92).
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