September 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls — Jobs Report Odds
What the prediction markets imply for the September 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls, next to our independent fair value.
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| Outcome | Market | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 0 | — | — | — |
| Above 10,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 20,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 30,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 40,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 50,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 60,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 70,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 80,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 90,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 100,000 | — | — | — |
| Above 125,000 | — | — | — |
Fair-value and market data will appear here once the event is priced and computed.
How the fair value is set
Our fair value is derived independently of the prediction market — from consensus economist forecasts. When the market and the Scopes Fair Value diverge, that gap is what we watch, and score publicly.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from fed-funds-futures–implied odds and published macro nowcasts (Cleveland Fed, GDPNow).
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
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