August 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls — Jobs Report Odds
What the prediction markets imply for the August 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls, next to our independent fair value. This event has resolved.
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| Outcome | Market | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150k | — | — | — | YES |
| Below 150k | — | — | — | NO |
Fair-value and market data will appear here once the event is priced and computed.
How the fair value is set
Our fair value is derived independently of the prediction market — from consensus economist forecasts. When the market and the Scopes Fair Value diverge, that gap is what we watch, and score publicly.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from fed-funds-futures–implied odds and published macro nowcasts (Cleveland Fed, GDPNow).
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
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