Fed funds path - year-end 2026 — Fed Rate Decision Odds
What the prediction markets imply for the Fed funds path - year-end 2026, next to our independent fair value.
As of Sep 30, 2026Delayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
| Outcome | Market | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed elevated in 2026 (no cuts / rate above 3.50% at year-end) | 98.0% | 99.7% | 1.7 pts |
How the market has moved
The prediction-market price against our independent fair value over time, for Fed elevated in 2026 (no cuts / rate above 3.50% at year-end). Sampled coarser early and finer as resolution nears.
Interactive for subscribers: hover any date for its exact market and fair-value reading, and drag to zoom the window. See plans →
How the fair value is set
Our fair value is derived independently of the prediction market — from CME fed-funds futures, decomposed into cut/hold/hike probabilities via the FedWatch method. When the market and the Scopes Fair Value diverge, that gap is what we watch, and score publicly.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from fed-funds-futures–implied odds and published macro nowcasts (Cleveland Fed, GDPNow).
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
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