July 2026 CPI (YoY) — CPI Inflation Odds
What the prediction markets imply for the July 2026 CPI (YoY), next to our independent fair value. This event has resolved.
As of Aug 3, 2026Delayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
| Outcome | Market | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | 28.0% | 25.3% | 2.8 pts | NO |
| Below 3.4% | — | — | — | YES |
How the market has moved
The prediction-market price against our independent fair value over time, for Above 3.4%. Sampled coarser early and finer as resolution nears.
Interactive for subscribers: hover any date for its exact market and fair-value reading, and drag to zoom the window. See plans →
How the fair value is set
Our fair value is derived independently of the prediction market — from the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast, converted to above/below-threshold probabilities. When the market and the Scopes Fair Value diverge, that gap is what we watch, and score publicly.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from fed-funds-futures–implied odds and published macro nowcasts (Cleveland Fed, GDPNow).
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
Get the Week in Review (free)
A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk: what moved, what resolved, what's ahead. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.