Wisconsin Governor 2026 — Odds & Model Forecast
What the prediction markets imply for Wisconsin Governor 2026, next to the Scopes Poll Composite: the median of independent forecast models.
Live data begins once this market is priced. Subscribe for live updates.
Reading the table: “not listed” means that venue carries no contract for this race; “—” means a contract exists but has no price yet.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | — | — | — | — |
| Democratic | — | — | — | — |
Market and model data will appear here once the race is priced and benchmarked.
How the Scopes Fair Value is set
When a single weight-eligible forecast model publishes a probability for an outcome, its forecast is the Scopes Fair Value. With two or more, the Scopes Poll Composite is their median (median, not mean: one outlier model can't swing it). The models:
- Decision Desk HQ · Decision Desk HQ · DDHQ's model incorporates prediction-market prices among its inputs.
- Election Statsheet · Election Statsheet
- Scopes Poll Average · Scopes · Median of qualifying public polls (rules-based); margin → P(win) via a versioned sigma schedule.
Earlier series collected from additional sources are retained in the archive and excluded from the composite.
- Scopes Fair Value :
- an independent probability estimate computed from the Scopes Poll Composite: the median of independent election-forecast models.
- Scopes Divergence :
- the difference between the market price and the Scopes Fair Value.
Get the Week in Review (free)
A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk: what moved, what resolved, what's ahead. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.