The Scope · polls
senate-control
The last hour before settlement, by the minute. Settlement (T0): Nov 3, 11:46 PM EST. Outcome: Republicans keep the Senate: no. Market lanes: Kalshi, Polymarket (LIVE). Fair value: the independent Scopes fair, recomputed through the hour.
Capture gap. Capture was interrupted at Nov 3, 11:00 PM EST by an operational fault on our side, so the minutes after that are missing. Nothing is backfilled. T0 is the time Kalshi closed this market. The late-volume share is withheld because the hour's volume is incomplete.
- Widest gap
- 42.4 ptat T-58
- Minutes beyond 6pt
- 14/14
- Converged
- not in hour
- Avg width
- 0.2 pt
- Captured
- 14/61minutes
Minute table (Kalshi lane)
| Minute | Mid | Bid | Ask | Fair | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 42.4 |
| T-59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 42.4 |
| T-58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 42.4 |
| T-57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 42.4 |
| T-56 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 42.3 |
| T-55 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 42.3 |
| T-54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 42.3 |
| T-53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 42.2 |
| T-52 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.2 |
| T-51 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.2 |
| T-50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.2 |
| T-49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.2 |
| T-48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.1 |
| T-47 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 42.1 |
T-5 to T0 hidden. The last five minutes are for subscribers.
Cite this record
<iframe src="https://scopes.com/scope/polls-senate-control-rep/embed" width="480" height="260" style="border:1px solid #e4dfd5" title="The Scope"></iframe>A record of published prices in the hour before settlement, with an independent estimate for context. Not a forecast and not advice. Values are as recorded and are never revised; corrections are appended. Methodology: curated-v1.