Catastrophe Scope · Storm room
Live hurricane landfall odds
When an Atlantic storm is active, each city's landfall probability from an independent GEFS ensemble, the share of the 31 member tracks striking within ~65 nm at hurricane force, blended toward climatology by how in-play the storm is, next to the market price when Kalshi has a landfall market live. The ensemble is raw model guidance, not NHC's official forecast, so it can diverge from both.
Delayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
No active Atlantic storms
This room fills automatically when a storm is active and the ensemble guidance is in. Until then, see the landfall climatology for each city's base rate.
Method: ensemble = fraction of GEFS members (AP01–AP30 + control) whose track passes within the strike radius at ≥ 64 kt; fair blends ensemble with the remaining-season climatology by the in-play share. Independent of the venue's settlement (NHC best-track). Scopes is research and information only, not investment advice.