Catastrophe Scope · Landfall
Atlantic hurricane landfall climatology
The independent base rate for a hurricane striking each coastal city: the climatological return period (from HURDAT2 track history) expressed as a per-season strike probability. This is the insurance/cat-bond-standard view, and the fair-value engine behind Scopes's landfall markets. Kalshi lists per-city landfall markets when a storm threatens; when they're live, the market price sits next to these numbers.
| City | Return period | Season strike | Rest of season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida (statewide)FL | ~2.2 yr | 37% | 9% |
| Hatteras IslandNC | ~5 yr | 18% | 4% |
| WilmingtonNC | ~6 yr | 15% | 3% |
| MiamiFL | ~7 yr | 13% | 3% |
| North Myrtle BeachSC | ~7 yr | 13% | 3% |
| New OrleansLA | ~8 yr | 12% | 3% |
| CharlestonSC | ~9 yr | 11% | 2% |
| NorfolkVA | ~11 yr | 9% | 2% |
| JacksonvilleFL | ~12 yr | 8% | 2% |
| SavannahGA | ~14 yr | 7% | 1% |
Method: landfalls near a city are modeled as a Poisson process at the climatological annual rate (λ = 1 ÷ return period); season strike = 1 − e−λ. The rest-of-season figure scales λ by the share of Atlantic landfall risk still ahead (risk clusters in Aug–Oct). Return periods are v1 climatology placeholders from published HURDAT2 studies, to refine with a live track parse. Independent of the venue's settlement source (NHC best-track).
Research & information only, not investment advice.