The calendar
Most of the macro board resolves next week: a long slate of 2026 races (Senate, House, and governors) settles the night of Nov 4, and October Nonfarm Payrolls prints Nov 6. On the field, the Bears vs Seahawks game is Nov 2, with a college football run Nov 6-7 including SMU vs Virginia Tech and Texas A&M vs South Carolina. Sports and commodity markets settle continuously, as the desk sections show.
Market vs. fair value
The biggest single move this week was in Polls: the market on a Kansas Senate Democratic win jumped more than 13 points. The widest standing gap to our benchmark remains Alaska Senate, where the market and our model disagree by about 25 points.
Polls
Election markets did most of the moving ahead of Nov 4.
- Kansas Senate (Democratic) - market 53.0% now vs 39.8% a week ago (+13.2 pts, the widest move this week); benchmark sits at 55.0%
- Maine Senate (Republican) - market 31.5% vs 40.1% a week ago (-8.6 pts); benchmark has it lower at 18.7%
- US Senate control (Democrats take) - market 70.5% vs 63.5% a week ago (+7.0 pts); benchmark 51.6%, a gap of about 20 pts
- Michigan Senate (Republican) - market 28.2% vs 33.5% a week ago (-5.3 pts); benchmark 13.5%
- Alaska Senate (Republican) - market 27.9% vs benchmark 50.8%, a 24.6 pt gap and the widest standing divergence
- US House control (Republicans keep) - market 6.9% vs benchmark 21.5%, a 16.0 pt gap
- Iowa Senate (Democrat) - market 44.1% vs benchmark 58.9%, a 16.8 pt gap
Rates
Macro moved little; the jobs print is the near-term focus.
- Oct Nonfarm Payrolls above 30,000 - market 71.5% vs benchmark 65.0% (+6.5 pts)
- Oct Nonfarm Payrolls above 10,000 - market 82.0% vs benchmark 75.6% (+6.4 pts)
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026 - market 99.5% vs benchmark 97.9%, little changed on the week
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 19.5% vs benchmark 13.4%; Polymarket prices it higher at 31.5%
Sports · NBA
- Pacers to win - market 28.5% vs sharp book 18.0%, a 10.5 pt gap (Nets side: market 71.5% vs 82.0%)
Sports · NFL
- Chiefs to win - market 89.5% vs sharp book 85.4%, a 4.1 pt gap (Broncos side 10.5% vs 14.6%)
Energy · WTI
Crude gaps stayed small against oil-ETF options-implied odds.
- WTI above $102.99 - market 44.0% vs options-implied 46.5%, a 3.9 pt gap
- WTI above $101.99 - market 57.5% vs options-implied 52.5%, a 3.5 pt gap
- WTI above $109.99 - market 4.0% vs options-implied 7.5%
Stocks · S&P 500
Range markets diverged modestly from CBOE SPX options-implied odds.
- SPX between 7550 and 7575 - market 51.0% vs options-implied 40.0%, a 12.8 pt gap
- SPX between 7400 and 7600 - market 10.5% vs options-implied 18.0%, a 12.2 pt gap
- SPX between 7525 and 7550 - market 28.5% vs options-implied 37.0%, a 7.7 pt gap
Scope of the week
Worth watching into next week: Alaska Senate, where the market (27.9% Republican) and our benchmark (50.8%) still sit about 25 points apart heading into a Nov 4 resolution. It is one to observe rather than act on. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; this recap is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
The running record is 430-540, average return 99.8%. Resolving recently, the Stocks desk landed three SPX range fades: the 7550-7574.99 no (+1438.5%), 7600-7624.99 no (+525%), and 7650-7674.99 no (+455.6%). The Weather desk was mixed: a Los Angeles 69-70 no came in (+316.7%), while four other Los Angeles temperature flags resolved against us at -100% each. Losses and wins both on the board.
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