The calendar
The midterm board resolves November 4: House and Senate control plus a long list of Senate and Governor races (Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Georgia, Maine and more). Before then the sports slate runs continuously: tonight brings Rays vs Brewers (MLB) and Eagles vs Cowboys (NFL), with a full college football card on October 30 including Ole Miss vs Auburn and SMU vs Syracuse.
Market vs. fair value
Polls carried the week's largest week-over-week move, with the Texas Governor market shifting about 8 points toward the Democrat. The widest standing gap against our benchmark remains Alaska Senate, where the market and our model sit on opposite sides.
Polls
Midterm races dominate both the moves and the widest gaps.
- Texas Governor (Democratic) - market 33.2% vs benchmark 15.9% (+7.7 pts w/w, the week's largest single move)
- Alaska Senate (Democratic) - market 75.5% vs benchmark 23.6% (gap of 51.9 pts, widest on the board)
- US Senate control (Democrats take it) - market 63.5% vs benchmark 38.7% (+1.6 pts w/w)
- Kansas Senate (Democratic) - market 39.8% vs benchmark 26.9% (+3.7 pts w/w)
- US House control (Democrats take it) - market 90.1% vs benchmark 73.4% (+0.5 pts w/w)
- Iowa Senate (Republican) - market 58.5% vs benchmark 43.2% (+1.6 pts w/w)
Rates
Quiet on the Fed line.
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026 - market 98.5% vs benchmark 98.4% (unchanged w/w)
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 20.5% vs benchmark 13.0% (Polymarket reads 35.0%)
Sports · NFL
Market and the sharp book differ by roughly 7 to 9 points on three games.
- Dolphins - market 63.5% vs sharp book 55.0% (gap 8.5 pts)
- Ravens - market 69.5% vs sharp book 61.7% (gap 7.8 pts)
- 49ers - market 73.5% vs sharp book 66.4% (gap 7.1 pts)
Energy · WTI
The crude markets sit well below the oil-ETF options-implied odds on staying above current levels.
- WTI above $66.99 - market 61.5% vs options-implied 100% (gap 38.4 pts)
- WTI above $69.49 - market 62.0% vs options-implied 100% (gap 37.9 pts)
- WTI above $94.99 - market 64.0% vs options-implied 77.5% (gap 21.4 pts)
Stocks · S&P 500
Range markets differ from CBOE SPX options by 8 to 17 points.
- SPX 7625 to 7650 - market 60.5% vs options-implied 71.0% (gap 16.5 pts)
- SPX 7600 to 7625 - market 37.5% vs options-implied 24.0% (gap 14.5 pts)
- SPX 7400 to 7600 - market 9.5% vs options-implied 16.0% (gap 13.4 pts)
Scope of the week
Alaska Senate is worth watching into November 4: the market has the Democrat at 75.5% while our benchmark has it at 23.6%, the widest market-vs-benchmark gap on the board, and it resolves the same night as House and Senate control. This is an observation about what the market may be missing, not a recommendation. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls; everything here is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
A rough stretch at resolution: all eight recently settled flags came in wrong, including three SPX range calls (7600 to 7625, 7625 to 7650, 7675 to 7700) and five weather flags, each returning -100%. The running record stands at 396-491. Over the longer sample, 551 flags have resolved with 317 going to the market side and 234 to the Scopes Fair Value side (p < 0.01).
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