The calendar
Macro is quiet in the window: no rates or polls contracts resolve in the next 14 days, though September payrolls and the Senate races sit further out. The near-term board is sports, which settle continuously. This weekend: McNeese at LSU (market 99.5% LSU) and Clemson at Miami (FL) (market 87.5% Miami) on Saturday, plus a full NFL slate Sunday including Rams at Eagles (market 63.5% Rams) and Titans at Ravens (market 84.5% Ravens).
Market vs. fair value
The widest single move this week was Texas Senate, where the market for Democrats rose about 7 points. The widest standing gap is September payrolls, where the market sits at a coin flip against a benchmark that reads the odds very differently.
Rates
The September payrolls market is priced flat at 50% across thresholds, which leaves large gaps against the benchmark.
- Sep payrolls above -25,000 - market 50.0% vs benchmark 87.6% (widest standing gap, 37.6 pts)
- Sep payrolls above 125,000 - market 50.0% vs benchmark 12.4% (27.9 pts the other way)
- Sep payrolls above 100,000 - market 50.0% vs benchmark 22.1%
- US recession in 2027 (NBER) - market 20.0% vs benchmark 11.3%, market down 4.5 pts w/w
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026 - market 97.5% vs benchmark 99.3%, unchanged w/w
Polls
Several Senate races moved a few points; Alaska and Maine remain the widest against the benchmark.
- Texas Senate, Democrats win - market 64.5% vs benchmark 67.3% (+6.6 pts w/w, widest single move)
- Alaska Senate, Republican - market 31.5% vs benchmark 58.3% (+2.7 pts w/w, widest standing poll gap at 30.1 pts)
- US House, Democrats take the House - market 91.4% vs benchmark 77.4%
- US Senate, Democrats take the Senate - market 62.1% vs benchmark 50.0% (+1.0 pt w/w)
- Maine Senate, Democratic - market 58.5% vs benchmark 67.4% (down 5.4 pts w/w)
- Georgia Senate, Democratic - market 95.6% vs benchmark 93.8% (+1.6 pts w/w)
Sports · NCAAF
Gaps against the sharp book are small this week, all under 4 points.
- Utah St. - market 7.5% vs sharp book 11.4% (3.9 pts, widest sports gap)
- Boise St. - market 91.5% vs sharp book 88.6% (2.9 pts)
- Notre Dame - market 93.5% vs sharp book 90.7% (2.9 pts)
- Georgia - market 95.5% vs sharp book 93.3% (2.2 pts)
Energy · WTI
Crude thresholds show the widest gaps against oil-ETF options-implied odds.
- WTI above $88.99 - market 63.5% vs options-implied 75.0% (14.0 pts, widest energy gap)
- WTI above $57.99 - market 85.0% vs options-implied 93.5% (13.7 pts)
- WTI above $90.99 - market 54.5% vs options-implied 100% (11.1 pts)
- WTI above $108.99 - market 21.0% vs options-implied 12.1% (10.8 pts the other way)
Stocks · S&P 500
The S&P range markets differ from CBOE SPX options-implied odds around the 7,650 to 7,725 band.
- SPX between 7,700 and 7,725 - market 33.5% vs options-implied 27.0% (14.5 pts, widest stocks gap)
- SPX between 7,650 and 7,675 - market 50.5% vs options-implied 45.0% (12.0 pts)
- SPX between 7,675 and 7,700 - market 47.5% vs options-implied 53.0% (10.0 pts the other way)
- SPX between 7,200 and 7,400 - market 6.5% vs options-implied 5.0%
Scope of the week
Worth watching: September payrolls, where the market sits at a flat 50% across every threshold while the benchmark reads a soft-but-positive print as likely (87.6% above -25,000). That is a wide standing gap, and it is one to observe rather than act on. Subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls. This is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Resolved this week: on stocks, SPX 7675-7699.9999 no (+387.8%) and SPX 7700-7724.9999 no (+440.5%) both came in, as did SPX 7650-7674.9999 yes (+769.6%); the SPX 7675-7699.9999 yes side missed (-100%). Energy WTI at or above $91.49 yes resolved correct (+170.3%). Three Los Angeles weather flags also resolved correct, though weather is not a live desk here. The running record stands at 283-383 with an average return of 84.5%.
Get the Week in Review (free)
A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk: what moved, what resolved, what's ahead. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.