The calendar
The September 2026 FOMC decision resolves September 16. As of now the market has a hike at 56.5% against a benchmark of 55.7%, and a hold at 43.5% against 44.3%, so the two sides are close to agreement.
Market vs. fair value
A quiet week overall, with the biggest move on the rates desk: the market's read on a 2027 NBER recession dropped about 6.5 points. The polls desk stayed near where it started, and its widest gaps versus our benchmark stand out.
Rates
The largest week-over-week move was here: the 2027 recession read fell but stays well above our benchmark.
- 2027 NBER recession, market 24% now vs 30.5% a week ago (-6.5 pts, the widest move this week); benchmark 13.9%
- Sep FOMC hold, market 43.5% vs 41.5% a week ago (+2 pts); benchmark 44.3%
- Sep FOMC hike, market 56.5% vs 58.5% a week ago (-2 pts); benchmark 55.7%
- 2026 NBER recession, market 5.5% vs benchmark 13.9% (little changed w/w)
- Fed elevated at year-end 2026, market 92.5% vs benchmark 96.1% (little changed)
Polls
Little moved this week. The story is in the wide standing gaps to our forecast benchmark.
- Senate control (Democrats take), market 47.5% vs benchmark 16.8% (unchanged w/w)
- House control (Democrats take), market 84.5% vs benchmark 53.4% (unchanged w/w)
- North Carolina Senate (Republican), market 9.52% vs benchmark 31% (+0.9 pt w/w)
- Maine Senate (Republican), market 33.2% vs benchmark 39.5% (+1.7 pts w/w, the biggest polls move)
- Iowa Senate (Republican), market 62.9% vs benchmark 77.3% (+1.4 pts w/w)
Sports · NCAAF/NFL
Gaps versus the sharp book are small this week.
- Kansas (NCAAF), market 32.5% vs sharp book 35.2% (widest, 2.7 pts)
- Iowa (NCAAF), market 84.5% vs sharp book 81.9% (2.6 pts)
- Chiefs (NFL), market 55.5% vs sharp book 57.8% (2.3 pts)
- Penn St. (NCAAF), market 94.5% vs sharp book 92.3% (2.2 pts)
Energy · WTI
The market sits below the oil-ETF options read across most upside thresholds.
- WTI above $97.99, market 17% vs options-implied 32.5% (widest, 25 pts)
- WTI above $90.99, market 31.5% vs options-implied 47.5% (24.6 pts)
- WTI above $101.99, market 11.5% vs options-implied 32.5% (23.2 pts)
- WTI above $94.99, market 26% vs options-implied 17.5% (market above, 21.9 pts)
Stocks · S&P 500
- SPX between 7625 and 7650, market 58.5% vs CBOE options-implied 51% (widest, 13.5 pts)
- SPX between 7650 and 7675, market 31.5% vs options-implied 38.5% (7.9 pts)
- SPX between 7400 and 7600, market 9% vs options-implied 14% (5.7 pts)
Scope of the week
Worth watching into next week: WTI crude, where the market puts the odds of a move above $97.99 at 17% against the oil-ETF options-implied 32.5%, a 25-point gap and the widest in this week's table. The market reads most upside WTI thresholds well below the options market. As an observation, not a recommendation: subscribers get the live dashboard and the actual scored calls. This is research and information, not investment advice.
Scorecard
Resolved this week ran mixed. On energy, the two no calls at WTI $95.49 and $95.99 came in correct, returning 589.7% and 769.6%. But three no calls lower on the WTI ladder ($89.49, $89.99, $90.49) missed at -100% each, and three Los Angeles temperature flags also resolved wrong at -100%. The running record stands at 286-373, with an average return of 60.1% across resolved flags.
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