The Scope · sports

Lakers at Warriors

The last hour before settlement, by the minute. Settlement (T0): Oct 31, 12:52 AM EDT. Outcome: Warriors won. Market lanes: Kalshi, Polymarket (LIVE). Fair value: de-vigged pre-game line, held flat (in-play not modeled).

KalshiPolymarketpre-game fair (reference)Hover to read values · drag to zoom

The last five minutes are for subscribers. You are reading T-60 to T-6. The metrics and the settlement stay public; only the final five minutes (T-5 to T0) open with a subscription.

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Late volume: 8%last 10 min
Avg width: 1 pt
Captured: 55/61minutes

The fair line is a pre-game reference, held flat. In-play is not modeled for sports, so the distance between the live market and that line is not scored as a divergence; it mostly reflects the game being decided. A live sports gap is measured venue against venue, which needs a second venue lane.

Minute table (Kalshi lane)

Minute	Mid	Bid	Ask	Fair	Gap
T-60	22	21	22	43	21.1
T-59	22	21	22	43	21.1
T-58	22	21	22	43	21.1
T-57	28	28	29	43	14.1
T-56	24	23	24	43	19.1
T-55	27	26	27	43	16.1
T-54	28	28	29	43	14.1
T-53	30	29	30	43	13.1
T-52	33	32	33	43	10.1
T-51	33	32	33	43	10.1
T-50	33	32	33	43	10.1
T-49	34	33	34	43	9.1
T-48	43	42	43	43	0.1
T-47	41	40	41	43	2.1
T-46	47	46	47	43	3.9
T-45	47	46	47	43	3.9
T-44	55	54	55	43	11.9
T-43	60	59	60	43	16.9
T-42	67	66	67	43	23.9
T-41	68	67	68	43	24.9
T-40	66	65	66	43	22.9
T-39	66	65	66	43	22.9
T-38	65	64	65	43	21.9
T-37	65	64	65	43	21.9
T-36	69	68	70	43	26.4
T-35	67	66	68	43	24.4
T-34	73	72	73	43	29.9
T-33	81	80	81	43	37.9
T-32	81	80	81	43	37.9
T-31	81	80	81	43	37.9
T-30	81	80	81	43	37.9
T-29	85	84	85	43	41.9
T-28	89	88	89	43	45.9
T-27	97	96	97	43	53.9
T-26	94	93	94	43	50.9
T-25	93	92	93	43	49.9
T-24	94	93	94	43	50.9
T-23	94	93	94	43	50.9
T-22	95	94	95	43	51.9
T-21	95	94	95	43	51.9
T-20	95	94	95	43	51.9
T-19	95	94	95	43	51.9
T-18	93	92	93	43	49.9
T-17	92	91	92	43	48.9
T-16	92	91	92	43	48.9
T-15	98	97	98	43	54.9
T-14	97	96	97	43	53.9
T-13	97	96	97	43	53.9
T-12	96	95	96	43	52.9
T-11	99	98	99	43	55.9
T-10	99	98	99	43	55.9
T-9	100	99	100	43	56.9
T-8	100	99	100	43	56.9
T-7	100	99	100	43	56.9
T-6	100	99	100	43	56.9

T-5 to T0 hidden. The last five minutes are for subscribers.

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A record of published prices in the hour before settlement, with an independent estimate for context. Not a forecast and not advice. Values are as recorded and are never revised; corrections are appended. Methodology: sports-pregame-v1.