The Scope · sports

Patriots at Bears

The last hour before settlement, by the minute. Settlement (T0): Oct 22, 11:23 PM EDT. Outcome: Bears won. Market lane: Kalshi (LIVE). Fair value: de-vigged pre-game line, held flat (in-play not modeled).

Kalshipre-game fair (reference)Hover to read values · drag to zoom

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Late volume: 42%last 10 min
Avg width: 1 pt
Captured: 55/61minutes

The fair line is a pre-game reference, held flat. In-play is not modeled for sports, so the distance between the live market and that line is not scored as a divergence; it mostly reflects the game being decided. A live sports gap is measured venue against venue, which needs a second venue lane.

Minute table

Minute	Mid	Bid	Ask	Fair	Gap
T-60	77	76	77	59	17.2
T-59	77	76	77	59	17.2
T-58	77	76	77	59	17.2
T-57	73	72	73	59	13.2
T-56	67	66	67	59	7.2
T-55	67	66	67	59	7.2
T-54	67	66	67	59	7.2
T-53	67	66	67	59	7.2
T-52	66	65	66	59	6.2
T-51	69	68	69	59	9.2
T-50	69	68	69	59	9.2
T-49	73	72	73	59	13.2
T-48	72	71	72	59	12.2
T-47	72	71	72	59	12.2
T-46	72	71	72	59	12.2
T-45	74	73	74	59	14.2
T-44	76	75	76	59	16.2
T-43	74	73	74	59	14.2
T-42	74	73	74	59	14.2
T-41	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-40	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-39	83	82	83	59	23.2
T-38	84	83	84	59	24.2
T-37	77	76	77	59	17.2
T-36	78	77	78	59	18.2
T-35	87	86	87	59	27.2
T-34	86	85	86	59	26.2
T-33	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-32	69	68	69	59	9.2
T-31	69	68	69	59	9.2
T-30	69	68	69	59	9.2
T-29	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-28	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-27	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-26	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-25	80	79	80	59	20.2
T-24	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-23	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-22	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-21	79	78	79	59	19.2
T-20	73	72	73	59	13.2
T-19	82	81	82	59	22.2
T-18	83	82	83	59	23.2
T-17	92	91	92	59	32.2
T-16	93	92	93	59	33.2
T-15	93	92	93	59	33.2
T-14	96	95	96	59	36.2
T-13	95	94	95	59	35.2
T-12	95	94	95	59	35.2
T-11	87	86	87	59	27.2
T-10	85	84	85	59	25.2
T-9	85	84	85	59	25.2
T-8	100	99	100	59	40.2
T-7	100	99	100	59	40.2
T-6	100	99	100	59	40.2

T-5 to T0 hidden. The last five minutes are for subscribers.

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A record of published prices in the hour before settlement, with an independent estimate for context. Not a forecast and not advice. Values are as recorded and are never revised; corrections are appended. Methodology: sports-pregame-v1.