The Scope · sports
Dodgers at Brewers
The last hour before settlement, by the minute. Settlement (T0): Oct 12, 8:28 PM EDT. Outcome: Brewers won. Market lane: Kalshi (LIVE). Fair value: de-vigged pre-game line, held flat (in-play not modeled).
Fair value is a pre-game reference. For sports, in-play is not modeled, so the distance between the live market and the flat pre-game line is not scored as a divergence (it mostly reflects the game being decided). A live sports gap is measured venue against venue, which needs a second venue lane.
Minute table
| Minute | Mid | Bid | Ask | Fair | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-33 | 77 | 76 | 77 | 45 | 31.3 |
| T-32 | 80 | 79 | 80 | 45 | 34.3 |
| T-31 | 84 | 83 | 84 | 45 | 38.3 |
| T-30 | 83 | 82 | 83 | 45 | 37.3 |
| T-29 | 83 | 82 | 83 | 45 | 37.3 |
| T-28 | 83 | 82 | 83 | 45 | 37.3 |
| T-27 | 87 | 86 | 87 | 45 | 41.3 |
| T-26 | 89 | 88 | 89 | 45 | 43.3 |
| T-25 | 89 | 88 | 89 | 45 | 43.3 |
| T-24 | 89 | 88 | 89 | 45 | 43.3 |
| T-23 | 88 | 87 | 88 | 45 | 42.3 |
| T-22 | 90 | 89 | 90 | 45 | 44.3 |
| T-21 | 92 | 91 | 92 | 45 | 46.3 |
| T-20 | 91 | 90 | 91 | 45 | 45.3 |
| T-19 | 95 | 94 | 95 | 45 | 49.3 |
| T-18 | 96 | 95 | 96 | 45 | 50.3 |
| T-17 | 97 | 96 | 97 | 45 | 51.3 |
| T-16 | 97 | 96 | 97 | 45 | 51.3 |
| T-15 | 97 | 96 | 97 | 45 | 51.3 |
| T-14 | 96 | 95 | 96 | 45 | 50.3 |
| T-13 | 99 | 98 | 99 | 45 | 53.3 |
| T-12 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-11 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-10 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-9 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-8 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-7 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 45 | 52.3 |
| T-6 | 99 | 98 | 99 | 45 | 53.3 |
T-5 to T0 hidden. The last five minutes are for subscribers.
A record of published prices in the hour before settlement, with an independent estimate for context. Not a forecast and not advice. Values are as recorded and are never revised; corrections are appended. Methodology: sports-pregame-v1.