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The Scope · sports

Raptors at Clippers

The last hour before settlement, by the minute. Settlement (T0): Nov 3, 12:58 AM EST. Outcome: Clippers lost. Market lanes: Kalshi, Polymarket (LIVE). Fair value: de-vigged pre-game line, held flat (in-play not modeled).

KalshiPolymarketpre-game fair (reference)Hover to read values · drag to zoom
0255075100toss-upT-60T-30T038%
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Late volume
47%last 10 min
Avg width
1.1 pt
Captured
55/61minutes

The fair line is a pre-game reference, held flat. In-play is not modeled for sports, so the distance between the live market and that line is not scored as a divergence; it mostly reflects the game being decided. A live sports gap is measured venue against venue, which needs a second venue lane.

Minute table (Kalshi lane)
MinuteMidBidAskFairGap
T-607877783839.8
T-598483843845.8
T-588685863847.8
T-578584853846.8
T-568685863847.8
T-558685863847.8
T-548685863847.8
T-538483843845.8
T-528685863847.8
T-518180813842.8
T-509089903851.8
T-499190913852.8
T-488887883849.8
T-477877783839.8
T-467877783839.8
T-457776773838.8
T-447675763837.8
T-437978793840.8
T-427877783839.8
T-417473743835.8
T-408079803841.8
T-398180813842.8
T-388786873848.8
T-379190913852.8
T-368786873848.8
T-358281823843.8
T-348079803841.8
T-337574753836.8
T-327170723833.3
T-316362643825.3
T-306766683829.3
T-298079803841.8
T-288079803841.8
T-277675763837.8
T-268281823843.8
T-256665663827.8
T-24424142383.8
T-23454445386.8
T-22373637381.2
T-212726273811.2
T-202624273812.2
T-192019203818.2
T-181413143824.2
T-172726273811.2
T-169893829.2
T-159893829.2
T-145453833.2
T-134343834.2
T-123233835.2
T-112123836.2
T-101211133825.7
T-91413143824.2
T-84343834.2
T-73233835.2
T-63233835.2

T-5 to T0 hidden. The last five minutes are for subscribers.

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A record of published prices in the hour before settlement, with an independent estimate for context. Not a forecast and not advice. Values are as recorded and are never revised; corrections are appended. Methodology: sports-pregame-v1.