Catastrophe Scope
Hurricane-season markets vs. an independent forecast
Kalshi's Atlantic seasonal storm-count markets next to a Scopes Fair Value built from a negative-binomial model on the CSU/NOAA seasonal outlook and HURDAT2 climatology, deliberately a different source than the venue's settlement (the NHC post-season count), so the fair value is independent. Scopes measures the gap and keeps a public record of which side proved right.
Delayed · publicLive prices, full history & gap alerts → Dashboard
| Event | Outcome | Resolves | Kalshi | Scopes Fair Value | Scopes Divergence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pacific hurricanes | ≥ 4 | Dec 1 | 95.5% | — | 17.3% | 78.2 pts |
| C. Pacific major hurricanes | ≥ 2 | Dec 1 | 94.0% | — | 16.1% | 77.9 pts |
| C. Pacific hurricanes | ≥ 3 | Dec 1 | 99.0% | — | 26.5% | 72.5 pts |
| E. Pacific named storms | ≥ 19 | Dec 1 | 90.5% | — | 19.0% | 71.5 pts |
| E. Pacific named storms | ≥ 18 | Dec 1 | 94.5% | — | 23.9% | 70.6 pts |
| E. Pacific named storms | ≥ 20 | Dec 1 | 84.5% | — | 14.9% | 69.6 pts |
| E. Pacific named storms | ≥ 17 | Dec 1 | 98.0% | — | 29.5% | 68.5 pts |
| C. Pacific named storms | ≥ 5 | Dec 1 | 96.0% | — | 31.5% | 64.5 pts |
| C. Pacific major hurricanes | ≥ 1 | Dec 1 | 94.5% | — | 30.1% | 64.4 pts |
| E. Pacific named storms | ≥ 16 | Dec 1 | 99.0% | — | 35.9% | 63.1 pts |
| E. Pacific major hurricanes | ≥ 4 | Dec 1 | 97.5% | — | 36.6% | 60.9 pts |
| C. Pacific hurricanes | ≥ 2 | Dec 1 | 99.0% | — | 39.6% | 59.5 pts |
| E. Pacific major hurricanes | ≥ 5 | Dec 1 | 84.0% | — | 24.9% | 59.1 pts |
| C. Pacific named storms | ≥ 4 | Dec 1 | 99.0% | — | 41.6% | 57.4 pts |
| E. Pacific hurricanes | ≥ 8 | Dec 1 | 95.5% | — | 40.4% | 55.1 pts |
Market price (Kalshi, Polymarket) vs. the Scopes Fair Value. Prices are point-in-time and for research, not trading advice.
Research & information only, not investment advice.