# Scopes

> An independent view of what the odds should be — and a public record of when we've been right.

Scopes is an independent benchmark for prediction markets: for Fed/rates,
polls, sports, energy (WTI), and stocks (S&P 500), we publish each market's price
next to an independent Scopes Fair Value, the Scopes Divergence between them, and
a public, mechanical record of which side proved right.

## What the data is
- Scopes Fair Value: an independent fair value per event, computed from
  benchmarks (futures/nowcasts, de-vigged sharp books, options-implied curves),
  never from the betting-market price.
- Scopes Divergence: market price minus Scopes Fair Value, in points.
- Scorecard / calibration: every system-flagged divergence tracked to
  resolution — which side, market or fair value, was right.
- Liquidity: top-of-book and order-book depth on both the market venues and the
  benchmark source (research asset; not yet in the public API).

## Machine access
- OpenAPI (read API): https://scopes.com/api/openapi.json
- API base (versioned, stable): https://scopes.com/api/v1
- Scopes Reference (bitemporal record) + data dictionary: https://scopes.com/reference · https://scopes.com/api/v1/dictionary
- MCP server (Streamable HTTP): https://scopes.com/api/mcp
- Methodology & changelog (how each fair value is computed; methodology_version key): https://scopes.com/docs/methodology
- Tools: get_divergences, list_outcomes, get_series, get_calibration_summary, get_coverage
- Chaining: list_outcomes returns a series_ref per market — {by:"outcome",outcome_id}
  for rates/polls, {by:"ticker",desk,ticker} for sports/stocks/energy — feed it to
  get_series. get_divergences also returns outcome_id (rates/polls sample).
- Series axes: /api/v1/series?outcome=<id> (rates/polls) or ?ticker=<t>&desk=<d>
  (sports/stocks/energy). Rate-desk series are withheld (403) pending licensing.
- Point-in-time (as_of): /api/v1/series accepts as_of (ISO 8601) — responses
  reflect only data captured at or before it, no lookahead; a pinned past as_of on
  a paid key is reproducible. Fields: price + Scopes Fair Value + Scopes Divergence
  per captured timestamp.

## Access terms
- Free tier: delayed data (divergences delayed ~24h; history trailing 30 days),
  computed summaries only, rate-limited. Live data and the full archive require a
  subscription; an API key inherits its owner's entitlements.
- Terms of use (machine-readable pointer): https://scopes.com/terms
- Every API and MCP response returns the terms URL in the X-Scopes-Terms header.

## Canonical pages
- Scorecard: https://scopes.com/scorecard
- Calibration: https://scopes.com/calibration
- Studies: https://scopes.com/studies
- Desks: https://scopes.com/rates · https://scopes.com/polls · https://scopes.com/sports · https://scopes.com/energy · https://scopes.com/stocks

## Attribution
Cite as "Scopes" with a link to https://scopes.com. Research and information only —
not investment advice.